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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Eric_Harshbarger Eric Harshbarger
#player2 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
>Eric_Harshbarger: UX 8G XU +18 18
>David_Weisberg: FNOORTW 7F WONT +21 21
#note OUTFROWN for 65!
>Eric_Harshbarger: AQ I5 QA. +12 30
>David_Weisberg: AEEFLOR 6D ALEF +29 50
#note I wasn't sure here. I simmed OAF, OF, LEAF, ALEF, and EF, and OAF comes out best, beating ALEF by about 3 points. OF and LEAF are around 2 points below OAF, and EF runs about even with ALEF. OAF of course sets up the L, but the spot is likely to be interfered with. ALEF and LEAF allow easier parallel plays in response. OAF has the best leave of these as well, so that may be a determing factor.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ADP 5D PAD +27 57
>David_Weisberg: EIIOORT J2 TORII +24 74
>Eric_Harshbarger: ALSY K5 SLAY +41 98
>David_Weisberg: EEOSTTU J8 OUT +10 84
#note 8K YOUSE 27 comes out half a point ahead in a sim, but I like my bingo chances a lot with OUT.
>Eric_Harshbarger: IIIIII -IIIIII +0 98
#note Unknown rack
>David_Weisberg: EELLOST D4 O..L +12 96
#note 4C LO 14 sims about 2.5 better. I'm not sure I considered it that closely. I thought of OPAL also as a hedge against drawing J or Z or some combination of scoring tiles (FH for FLESH, for example), where it might make sense to break up the bingo leave.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ABIRV 11H BRAVI +24 122
>David_Weisberg: CEEELST 12B CELESTE +75 171
>Eric_Harshbarger: AEEHINR 2D HERNIA.E +63 185
>David_Weisberg: ?EEGTWY 1A WYTE +39 210
>Eric_Harshbarger: JSTU 8A JUTS +44 229
>David_Weisberg: ?AADEGM 13H DAMAGEd +78 288
>Eric_Harshbarger: FZ H1 F.Z +45 274
>David_Weisberg: EEKMNNN E9 NEN. +8 296
#note Had a tough time with this one. I wanted to unduplicate the N's and keep a good leave for the row 1 triple or another big K play like KENDO. A sim prefers 11C MEN 20 by over 8 points, and 11C NENE 18 by nearly 6 points. I wanted to hang onto an E since they were getting to be scarce. It's a close game so the point sacrifice is major. After seeing sim results I am still unsure here.
>Eric_Harshbarger: CDIOP 1K PODIC +37 311
#note I thought this looked funny, but I had just drawn O, R, and the blank, so I though I could withstand it if I let it go. Losing a turn to a challenge, on the other hand, would force me to bingo in a hurry.
>David_Weisberg: ?EKMNOR N10 KEN.O +36 332
#note Nowhere for WORKMEN or MONIKER or MONKERY (this last I didn't know). A sim favors F10 MOSK 28 by about 4.5, and has my play about 3 points ahead of another strong option, L10 KING 18. I hadn't noticed MOSK, and I think part of what makes it strong is that it keeps an N, with two G's still unseen which could muck up a rack without an N in the leave. KENDO scores strongly and follows up with many high-scoring bingos, but it bingos overall far less often than MOSK or KING (42% vs 80% roughly).
I'm still a strong favorite after KENDO but I feel this was a big miss, and an opportunity to bingo very often without giving much back.
>Eric_Harshbarger: BHOS 15L BOSH +45 356
>David_Weisberg: ?DEGGMR B7 M.GG +12 344
>Eric_Harshbarger: AINR O8 RAIN +20 376
>David_Weisberg: ?DEIIRV M1 .IVIDERs +76 420
#note This could have gone a lot differently.Also, this was scored as only 74. Game total recorded as 428-376.
>David_Weisberg: (EIORU) +10 430
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