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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Andy_H Andy H
#player2 Carl Carl
>Andy_H: IIII -IIII +0 0
>Carl: CHMSUVZ 8G VUM +16 16
>Andy_H: ENW 9H NEW +14 14
>Carl: CHHRSYZ J9 .HY +20 36
#note WYCH is definitely better (-5). Didn't see it.
>Andy_H: ANRUW 11E UNWAR. +24 38
>Carl: CHLPRSZ E9 CH.RL +10 46
>Andy_H: DEEF 12D F.EED +34 72
>Carl: EELMPSZ H11 ..ZES +45 91
#note ZEP wins the sim (-3?), but this is questionable. Is Quackle assuming Andy would play parallel on Row 14, giving me a huge S-spot? That seems a bit optimistic. But on the other hand, ZEP introduces a bit of a mind game. For instance, if I had a D or an S, why not ADZED/ADZES? So if Andy has one of these tiles, he might play parallel, forming ADZE, hoping to use the spot himself. But maybe he's thinking one level deeper than that, knows that I would deliberately forgo the spot to set a trap for him, and thus, rather than taking the bait, he would play ADZED/ADZES immediately.
>Andy_H: EO 10E .OE +19 91
>Carl: ELLMNPP 7H MELL +18 109
#note Yuck!
>Andy_H: DGIU K4 GUI.D +14 105
>Carl: INOOPPS 4D OPPOSIN. +78 187
#note Well, that was lucky.
>Andy_H: ADEIOTX 15A OXIDATE. +104 209
#note Easy come, easy go.
>Carl: AIOOTTT 14A TAO +28 215
#note I thought this would be better than TOO because there are 6 As unseen. Actually, TOO and TOT both sim higher. (-1)
>Andy_H: ?AIILOR L8 AIRfOIL +68 277
>Carl: AAIIOTT M11 AIT +13 228
#note I saw that PATIO didn't play at E4, but missed that it played at F4. (-10)
>Andy_H: EKNT M6 KENT +17 294
>Carl: AEIJOST 5C JIAO +36 264
#note Another miss-- JO 3G is clearly best. (-7)
>Andy_H: BNSU 15L SNUB +29 323
>Carl: ?ABERST N2 REBAiTS +78 342
#note I spent too long deciding on this play, which will come back to haunt me later. I didn't even get it right: N1 TERBIAS apparently wins 8% more often and beats REBAITS by 6 points.
>Andy_H: ACF H1 CAF. +27 350
#note Fatigue is definitely taking its toll. I spent some three minutes holding on CAFS, and I was very close to challenging. I thought CAF might be an adjective. But the more I thought about it, the more certain I was that CAFS was good. I really need to be thinking about other things here. This is about as hard a pre-endgame as any. The "easy" part is that Andy definitely didn't have the Q when he played CAFS, else QI. So it's 50-50 whether he drew it. I need to think about both scenarios, and there is precious little time.
>Carl: EEEGIVY 3L VE. +12 354
#note This is a valiant try, but doesn't really work. I saw that I'd have EERY O1 with an QR draw, CINQ 1H after QN, and QAID 2G if I drew QD. In my view, this seemed to mitigate the possibility of drawing the Q. Additionally, VEE blocks QAT, one of the highest-scoring Q plays available to Andy. It is good to notice such things, but if I'd looked ahead even further, I would have seen that EERY is blockable and QAID/CINQ still lose in the endgame. Thus, there is no win if I draw the Q. The sim winner here is the counterintuitive YEN J2, which blocks all Q plays except QAT M1. If Andy plays QAT, I'll have VEGIE O1. The problem is that Andy doesn't have to play QAT. Oftentimes, he'll also have JIN or JIG C5, setting up the Q in two spots, so there remains some uncertainty-- I won't always be able to block 6B while retaining VEGIE. As with VEE, YEN always fails if I draw the Q. Then there's JIVEY, which sims well at first, but fails upon scrutiny. If Andy has the Q, he'll play QI B6, and if he doesn't have it, he'll block the spot, leaving me stuck with it-- or set up something good for himself like DART B8 keeping GOR, knowing that I have to play the Q at 6B. (-9?).
>Andy_H: R E4 ..R +5 355
>Carl: EEGIOQY 6B YO +22 376
#note I was completely out of time at this point and mindlessly played the endgame. Correct play here is O4 YE. (-18)
>Andy_H: ADGINRT 7C GAT +25 380
>Carl: EEGIQ 13H .IG +14 390
#note AG 5N wins the sim. (-2)
>Andy_H: DINR O3 RIND +27 407
>Andy_H: (EEQ) +24 431
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