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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Noah_Walton Noah Walton
#player2 Jackson_Smylie Jackson Smylie
>Noah_Walton: AEINPR 8D PANIER +22 22
>Jackson_Smylie: ADDEEMO 7E DEMOED +31 31
>Noah_Walton: FOY 6D FOY +35 57
>Jackson_Smylie: ?ADEETU 5F EqUATED +71 102
>Noah_Walton: ?GIORRS D8 .RuRIGOS +72 129
>Jackson_Smylie: GNOOUYZ 15D .OYUZ +51 153
>Noah_Walton: AELRSST 9H SALTERS +66 195
>Jackson_Smylie: AEGLNOT N2 TANGELO. +72 225
>Noah_Walton: LOX O6 LOX +61 256
>Jackson_Smylie: AEIIORW L1 WEIR.O +28 253
#note looks close between WEIRDO, WIRE, and WAI(N). Missed WAIN. WIRE sims a point up mostly due to scoring defense.
>Noah_Walton: AJT C12 TAJ +37 293
>Jackson_Smylie: ABEIINU O1 BINE +28 281
#note missed BEAU O1, which looks a bit better.
>Noah_Walton: IPQ 10C Q.IP +20 313
>Jackson_Smylie: ACDHIIU G10 UH +20 301
#note between CUIF and UH here. CUIF is the standard eqiuty play, and the better Noah's range is the more I want to play UH here. With stuff like EENT it is worth it to play UH in the sim, but random rack or just E sim likes CUIF - however, the recursion of the E hook makes me want to take it out now, cause it might require another sactrifice after CUIF to take it out, so I prefer to do it now.
>Noah_Walton: CU M8 C.U +17 330
>Jackson_Smylie: ACDIIMV 11K VID +21 322
#note Maybe IVY instead of this, it's close. the AVID hok can be slightly useful to me, but the CRUDE/CRUDO hooks are a bit more useful for him, especially trusting he has an E after QUIP. I wanted to race to the S for 13B setups, and considered AMIDIC for that reason, but I wasn't sure of the word and it gives back a lot of points, so didn't feel worth it. it sims around 7 below. VID and IVY sim best, my gut now is IVY, especially to sav ethe D hook.
>Noah_Walton: AA 10J AA +14 344
>Jackson_Smylie: ACIIMTV F12 TIV. +18 340
#note the T doesn't really improve this leave here, no need to keep it
>Noah_Walton: EINNORS 12L NO +16 360
#note actual rack
>Jackson_Smylie: ABCEHIM N12 BACH +27 367
#note very tough turn. I liked leaving 3 in the bag (ideally 2), to force him to score little to not empty the bag. I didn't consder BAM, which is cool to go for FICHU, and a 4 tile play at 15L will empty the bag. However, a lot of those 4 tile plays can outrun me unless I draw fichu + an out, which is maybe a reasonable chance. I thought about FICHU but didn't see any play I liked that kept it, cause BEAM lets him play 2 tiles for a lot while leaving 2 in the bag. I didn't consider MECH, which gives me BAHT with a T draw. That might be a better version of BACH, cause EIM and ABI aren't so wildly different with this pool on this board.
>Noah_Walton: EEFINRS 15N .E +15 375
>Jackson_Smylie: AEIKMTW 13H TWEAK +23 390
#note Very interesting position to analyze postgame, since over the board the only play I seriously considered was TWEAK. I missed the only other play I see now that has any chance of winning, W(O) 6K, which goes for KETAMIN(E). Quackle thinks a lot of random plays like KI(F) and W(I)T(AN) win a lot, but they rarely if ever win, cause he can almost always do an out in two. After his last plays, I expect EIS to be on his rack the vast majority of the time - I can't really imagine any rack not containing those three that make sense for HE + NO. I think the F is also very unlikely to be on his rack, because FEHS would almost always win him the game. It's not impossible though. EW looks like it should win more than TWEAK, but I believe TWEAK wins more.
EW seems to only win when I draw KETAMINE and play it - Noah has to have one of EGILNRS, EFILNRS, EFGINRS, EFGILRS, or EFGILNS, given previous stipulations (and for the N to be out), and only for the first two racks do I actually win - with the latter three, he plays GLIFF or GRIFF, blocking ketamine and outrunning any rack I can draw. Working backwards, if I assign equal probability to all the 6 tile leaves Noah could have had, there are 7 distinct leaves but 10 total options weighted for probability (since he has the leaves containing one N twice as often). For each of these racks, I have to draw the N and Noah has to draw a tile that gives him EGILNRS or EFILNRS for me to win - the odds look like 9/60 for me to win after WO, assuming every rack is equally likely. Proper weighting might actually skew this quite a bit, because I win 1/3 of the time when Noah held EILNRS with HE, which seems like the most likely rack he could have had. TWEAK only wins if I draw FL or FR, cause I threaten MIFF and he can't quite outrun or block without me blocking his outs. His endgames when I draw FG or FN are somewhat hard, but I have faith he would find them (he in fact found one of them). Again assigning equal probability to all the racks he could have had with FE (sans F, including E, I, S), there's a 16/60 chance I draw FL or FR, which is quite a lot higher than 9/60 after WO. However, if he had his rack of EILNRS, I win 0/3 after TWEAK. I imagine the adjustment for that specific rack brings the two plays slightly closer but not nearly all the way. Over the board I just saw TWEAK could threaten MIFF and seemed like the only play that could ever threaten an out - I did not do nearly this much permutation, but I wish I had seen the WO possibility so I could have tried this process during the game. This would be exceptionally hard to figure out over the board, because even after a cursory analysis using Quackle I thought WO won far more often than TWEAK - it's only when you get into rack and range specifics that I realized WO can be blocked by G?IFF plays, which happen quite a lot when I do draw the N (cause it takes out all the double N racks he could have, which make having GLIFF/GRIFF impossible). If you got this far, thanks for reading - I did this analysis on the plane home where I had time to take the deep dive.
>Noah_Walton: EILNNRS 14I ERNS +25 400
#note noah finds his only win
>Jackson_Smylie: FGIM 3K M. +4 394
#note I saw MIFF would lose to LIMN, and nothing here wins - I have to try and bait an error. I think that is definitely FI(E) here, cause his only winning play is (ER)N. Either that or just play MIFF, but given the fact he played ERNS, he was probably permuting the MIFF sequence, so he probably found LIMN. It's likely moot cause Noah's a great endgame player, but you always gotta try to bait the error
>Noah_Walton: ILN 5C LI +7 407
>Jackson_Smylie: FGI 4D GI +20 414
>Noah_Walton: N 13B N.. +4 411
>Noah_Walton: (F) +8 419
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