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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 W Winter
>JJB: DELLRRS -LLR +0 0
#note 0:46 [24:14] JJB and W have not reconnected for 3 years even though both enjoy Collins play and should have met up with each other more often. JJB gets one vowel on the first rack and makes the correct trade. The next two plays are also starved for vowels.
>W: AFNW 8G FAWN +20 20
#note ~0:35 [~24:25]
>JJB: DDEQRST H7 Q.T +12 12
#note 0:28 [23:46]
>W: EIV J6 VI.E +15 35
#note ~1:36 [22:49] O in front, DS in back.
>JJB: DDDEERS 10J DREED +26 38
#note 1:44 [22:02] (correct score +2) JJB sees the right play but underscores it. He also notes that it's rare that redded (20) is a choice.
>W: HOO 9L OHO +24 59
#note 0:28 [22:21] Fine open overlap; W's rack is still not very balanced.
>JJB: DIMNNSU 8N MU +18 56
#note 2:09 [19:53] (hemin m9 20 +3.3) No need to raid the triple when hemin 20, and most anything plus qats, score enough points to improve on a 4-consonant leave including an S. Mudhen 13 is the extension of note.
>W: EEP 11M PEE +20 79
#note 0:31 [21:50] W continues to build extra vowels onto the structure.
>JJB: ADIINNS G8 .IN +10 66
#note 2:13 [17:40] This is the best leave, although qaid 21 is flashier.
>W: ?ABEINU F9 BEAUfIN +71 150
>W: ?ABEINU -- -71 79
#note 1:23 [20:27] (beau f9 17 +23.8) Perhaps inspired by the fin, W plunks down beaufin# from CSW. Of course in NWL20 there is no bingo and JJB has studied all his 4-voweled 7s from that source. Quackle would play beau without the extra fin.
>JJB: ADEEINS 11B ANISEED +73 139
#note 1:03 [16:37] (aniseed 11a 74 +1) JJB ought to consider opponent's rack, but in this case it wouldn't matter because all JJB's bingos allow inurbane in response. Of the 3 placements (row 11), 11b seems to lead simulation by 2%, at 58% win odds. JJB first put down 11c, but moved to 11b because he didn't like column H (not realizing it would merely duplicate column O). And for 11a he didn't like column A. Minor judgments, but fair intution this time.
>W: ?ABEINU E6 UNBIA.Ed +59 138
#note 0:54 [19:33] (urbanise e5 68 +9) W replies, "Interesting choice," seeing that the easiest bingo has been unlocked. But as just noted, all JJB's bingos allow at least one bingo reply, so here the choice is more negligible than it may appear. In fact, losing a challenge is the biggest opportunity cost of this whole game.
>JJB: LOOSTWX O11 .XTOL +60 199
#note 0:56 [15:41] JJB draws the X that he was concerned about opponent placing at 12h, so he blithely gets a bingo equivalent at 12o.
>W: ABI 13L BAI. +12 150
#note 1:01 [18:32] (bi 10b 22 +9.4) A simple double is often bait, when a sextuple letter is open and will score lots more. And playing off two vowels, instead of one with bi, doesn't help W's rack any.
>JJB: AEOSTVW B10 W.VES +38 237
#note 3:13 [12:28] (avow b11 20 +2.2) JJB can sextuple 10b the long way. Ahead 2 static points, due to bingo leave including S, is avow b11 20, without b10. The S may add 8 points to the leave, but the synergy adds about 12.
>W: Z -4 +0 150
#note 1:01 [17:31] W hopes to bounce back by retaining the 3 best tiles; it's not recorded what they are.
>JJB: AADIORT H11 .ROID +24 261
#note 2:22 [10:06] (12a ovate 24 +9.1) JJB elects to keep scoring. Yet the simple triple with AA in leave isn't a great fruit of 2 minutes when ovate/na/it can be calculated for the same score with vastly superior leave.
>W: AFN A13 FAN +25 175
#note 0:15 [17:16] Capable, and admitting of a mild column C setup.
>JJB: AAGOTTT 14L OTT. +18 279
#note 1:46 [8:20] (toga a7 20 +5.8) Now the triple (toga) really is worth it, because it undoubles the A, but JJB would rather perversely un-triple the T for less, while creating yet another big premium at 15l.
>W: GIPR F3 GRIP +23 198
#note 0:09 [17:07] (gip f4 22 +.1) Since R alone is +1.1, gip may be preferable.
>JJB: AAGIOTT A4 AGITATO +82 361
#note 0:31 [7:49] At the second 10@10 tournament in 2019, JJB scored agitatos* against Andy Hoang (who couldn't get time off to attend this same event in 2022). Now at the third 10@10 JJB knows better, and can ironically play the real word without fear, agitato adjective (column A or D): this achieves his greatest game lead of 163.
>W: NZ D10 Z.N +39 237
#note 1:09 [15:58] W makes a well-positioned parallel, which admits of even more play both horizontally and vertically, but has only just broken 200.
>JJB: ?GORUUY 4D GO.Y +16 377
#note 3:44 [4:05] (guy 15j 23 +17.4) JJB rarely sees the word gurry (26), fish offal, but here it wins thousands of simulations before losing one. He should at least see guy/boy, his own setup, but he retains two Us instead, even though his win odds are still 99%.
>W: J -4 +0 237
#note 0:26 [15:32] W, probably holding an S, sees no alternative to trading again at 140 points down. There is still that 1% chance, but it requires perfect play from here out.
>JJB: ?ELORUU 13A ..U +12 389
#note 1:31 [2:36] (feued 13a 27 +11.2) JJB misses a big chance to inflect his own word and make feued/zine 27. For fishing, euro b2 13 seems to win 100.0% to the nearest mill, because opponent can't work around it usefully.
>W: AMY 15J MAY +24 261
#note 0:16 [15:16] W gets to seal up 15l effectively.
>JJB: ?ELLORU 7C LU.E +13 402
#note 1:29 [1:07] (velour 6j 11 +5.8) Euro still wins thousands of sims, possibly all cases, but velour and loured have more dynamic points in a negligble distinction. JJB finds the hook lune/gripe, but still offers opponent .5% win odds.
>W: EK D2 KE. +8 269
#note 1:38 [13:38] (zine d10 20 +11.5; uke c13 14 +6) Even if the J is not on this rack, W can still benefit on average from setting up ok or oke at 13h (not knowing that opponent already has the blank), and also holds feued/zine 20.
>JJB: ?CHLLOR C2 OH +26 428
#note 0:25 [0:42] (lich 14g 32 +11.2) Now there are many plays that win all cases, and the highest dynamic value goes to JJB's spot, or c2 14, as well as to cashing scroll 1d 29 now. But these endgame cases can change upon further inspection, so clearer mathematical statements should await either the empty bag or a better analysis engine.
>W: ACEIJRS 2B J..E +30 299
#note ~0:18 [~13:20] (serac 1d 34, hepcats m9 23, aji 8a 12+8 +3) Now either player can sneak in hepcats 23! Joke 30 leaves W with an out that isn't fit to be blocked, but what's in one's spread interest is to hook skeg with scare/serac, setting up aji, which isn't fit for a block either.
>JJB: ?CLLRRS 13G R.LL +6 434
#note 0:21 [0:21] (hepcats m9 23, vicars 6j 13+8 +19) Just as both players miss skeg and feued/zine, both are peacefully oblivious to hepcats/mays 23, which is now better than blocking W's only out of vicars.
>W: ACIRS 1E ARCS +20 319
#note ~2:54 [10:26] (vicars 6j 13+10 +17) W allows opponent to go out with one of the options he found on W's time.
>JJB: ?CRS L5 RoSC.. +10 444
#note 0:09 [0:12] (orcs 2h 12+2 +2) Also scrod 8, but roscoe gets a final challenge from W for fun.
>JJB: (I) +2 446
#note JJB bonuses with two 4-voweled 7s, while W's 4-voweled 7 was in Collins only and was challenged off. W's trades also didn't help rack balance sufficiently this time around, but sometimes that's the outcome. JJB underscored and missed enough words like hemin, gurry, feued, velour, hepcats, and orcs that his win is not credited to his play alone. Known points available: JJB 24, W 35. Overall points available: W 73.8+, JJB 90.0.
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