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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 NB Nancy Bowen
>JJB: HILLQRT 8C THRILL +26 26
#note 0:38 [24:22] Indicated.
>NB: DDDEGI E7 G.IDDED +22 22
#note 1:06 [23:54] NB, who has the prime living-room seat in her own home, can also turn over 6 tiles usefully (giddied 19 is also a word). Her first idea had been girded 18 but she built on it.
>JJB: ABNQRTX 12D R.TAX +40 66
#note 1:53 [22:29] Straightforward to find this quadruple given the lone vowel reducing options, but the Q will dog JJB.
>NB: DEIO H11 O.IDE +39 61
#note 0:27 [23:27] Another easy play.
>JJB: BCIJLNQ G11 J.B +31 97
#note 1:43 [20:46] The opponents' tiles continue to work synergistically with each other as JJB finds the only play better than exchanging to CILN. Drawing three of the four top tiles in two turns, and playing two, is certainly suitable enough.
>NB: FI 14H .IF +15 76
#note 2:05 [21:22] NB is now under rack pressure and willing to drop behind.
>JJB: CILNQWY 11G ..WLY +36 133
#note 0:32 [20:14] For the third time, scoring a power tile other than the Q is indicated; and CINQ is a relatively safe (tame) leave for the Q, though valued at -7.1.
>NB: KU K11 .UK +10 86
#note 1:44 [19:38] You can almost hear NB's reaction to her tiles with this play.
>JJB: CINNOQR 12K .RN +6 139
#note 0:47 [15:25] (qi 9b 15 +13.4) Upset that cinq doesn't play, JJB elects to make his own spot for it, but this is giving up some winning odds and is his first weak play. He writes out the options between qi (15 and CNNOR, actually worth -3.0) and urn (6 and CINOQ, actually worth -7.4) and has a gut favor for the latter. There's still a lot to learn about static evaluation, even before moving on to dynamic valuation (which urn fails also).
>NB: AEW 13B AWE. +18 104
#note 0:13 [19:23] NB's prepared hook is ready and might work better than JJB's setup.
>JJB: CILNOQR M10 CI.Q +30 169
#note 0:47 [15:25]
>NB: ESY A13 YES +30 134
#note 0:47 [18:36] (ye 14b 25 +3.0) If NB is holding another S as likely, this is the best play (tied with the interestingly open yes 14b). Her two-turn score is 48 for her setup, compared to 36 for JJB's.
>JJB: AFLNORT B10 FAT.L +36 205
#note 1:24 [14:01] (afloat b9 38 +3.3) JJB holds frontal and is momentarily upset that NB has blocked tawed/lawed. However, he finds the sextuple F anyway. A little more checking might reveal float as well, which leads to afloat for better leave. This outdoes NB's setup and takes his lead to 71.
>NB: EIRSSTU C1 RUSTIES. +68 202
#note 1:08 [17:28] (suiters i2 69 +1) Now NB has her bingo but not the lead. The best proof of a "bingo-proof" lead is the bingo. Now there will be a race to the next bi(n)g scores.
>JJB: NOOOORT D2 TOON +18 223
#note 1:15 [12:46] (toon a8 19 +1) Showy as this is, the triple in column A is one higher. One good reason not to retain an O is the risk of drawing three more of them.
>NB: CEHIV A6 CHIVE +44 246
#note 1:35 [15:53] Meanwhile NB's cold draw is full of synergy, giving her a lead of 23.
>JJB: AAEOOOR -AAOOO +0 223
#note 1:31 [11:15] JJB, disappointed, makes the best trade for once. Five points behind many trades is hoo/oi/od, but there's no need despite being behind.
>NB: OU 1A OU. +9 255
#note 1:36 [14:17] Fortuitous vowel release.
>JJB: ?ABEGRS I2 BAGgERS +71 294
#note 2:51 [8:24] Now there are 12 bingos worth 71 and it's not worth it to agonize among them. What will NB do if she draws the second blank?
>NB: AEGNNTU G2 UNTANG.E +63 318
#note 0:47 [13:30] NB doesn't need a blank to bingo! Now her lead is 24 and the decision will go down to the endgame.
>JJB: AEIOOOR 4I .OOIER +14 308
#note 1:41 [6:43] Though JJB gets back most of what he'd thrown in (and NB didn't), there's still one good static play available without exchanging. Trading all is a good option with 10 in bag, and may win about 2%-3% more games (both rate around 15%). But since the endgame is fast approaching, trading 5-7 tiles dominates the simulations.
>NB: MM 3L MM +24 342
#note 1:45 [11:45] Another capable yet unrevealing play.
>JJB: AAAENOV 5B V..A +14 322
#note 4:35 [2:08] (aa 10i 13 +9.2) Now there are few options to bingo or score, as another three vowels have joined AO, as might have been expected. (The value of trading with 7-14 in the bag is underrated.) JJB doesn't have a simple bingo line and must count on scoring with the Z or blank. For this reason amia l2 6 leads the simulation with 20%, because even with blowback risk JJB is likelier to be the one to play zamia than he is to score well any other way. Aa/ami 7 rates 11% because it's harder for either player to get zamia down. Dumping V has rationale, but the setup rave n4 gets 9% to JJB's "safe" vina at 3%.
>NB: ?Z I13 Z.t +46 388
#note 1:15 [10:30] NB has both Z and blank and is not afraid to use them where indicated. Unless she holds the likes of epizoa/fe 56 or zipped/zapped 29 with id, this is the best static and dynamic play, as there are so many unseen duplicates that comeback is unlikely (though given Quackle's endgame choices it's still possible).
>JJB: AAENNOO 7I .OAN +4 326
#note 1:26.2 [0:41.2] (anoa f1 14, gip 5i 18, eon 2m 11+12 +13) JJB does well in the time allotted to leave himself two places to score aeon for 18! However, even better would be to score 14 first and threaten several outs including good responses to opponent play, starting with eon 11. Opponent cannot play rappee from either R because of higher response.
>NB: AEEIPP 6G .E.P +22 410
#note 1:03 [9:27] (peep 6k 20, aeon 2l 18+4 +6) Neep scores 22 but leaves 12 on rack for opponent; playing off two Ps with peep 20 leaves only 4.
>JJB: AENO 2L AEON +18 344
#note 0:07.9 [0:33.3] JJB makes the preferred indicated play, even if it's not enough to win.
>JJB: (AEIP) +12 356
#note After a very even midgame with sterling play by both sides, JJB's cold draw falls behind NB's and his last chance to win is to give opponent first chance to play zamia for about 100 points. NB had won the early bird with her home-court advantage and now has matched JJB at 2-2, but both are out of the prizes for the top two places (which will go to either Mark Owens 4-0, Andy Hoang 4-0, or Cathy Poole 3-1). Though JJB played an excellent game with only 39.6 opportunity points available, chiefly lost on not playing qi quickly enough and not having time to calculate a better endgame, this wasn't enough to overcome NB's cagey use of Z and blank at the endgame, after she found two good natural bingos. Known points available: NB 7, JJB 14. Overall points available: NB 10.0+, JJB 39.9.
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