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#player1 jackson jackson
#player2 jason jason
>jackson: AAEIILN -AI +0 0
#note after 111,000 iterations ex AI sims best. jason scolded me for playing this in two seconds, cause I played our last game in under a minute and lost handilly.
AALII looks standard here but exchanging on the first turn is often best. this wins a sim by about 2.8 over aalii, so given his defensive response it's probably a tossup.
>jason: DIY 8G YID +14 14
>jackson: AEEILNT 7C LINEATE +72 72
>jason: AENO 8A AEON +20 34
>jackson: EEIOORT -EOO +0 72
#note welcome to episode 255 of Jackson Exchanges Again! looks like another suboptimal play, cloudy skies with a chance of bingoing
TOO 6D blocks the scoring spot which is good, lowering his avg. by 5
he did take a long time with aeon and he seemed to be bingo searching, so I was quite sure he had a blank last turn. that was part of why I wanted to exchange, to hold better to counter his imminent bingo, and AEON's range is vowelly and low scoring and he only has 6 tiles with which to hit the 6D spot, and 6 row plays give back a nicer 7s lane than exchanging. all this probably makes it a tossup
>jason: ?AEFIOR 6I FOAmIER +70 104
>jackson: EEFIQRT O4 FE.RITE +42 114
#note hmm can't remember if I saw FAQIR, I think I did but I'm not sure. FERRITE does raise his average over stuff like FIRER or FERRET, but my options are also better cause I'm leaving an extra hotspot open for me to hit, and it's more likely I'll draw a Q bailout. this or FAQIR seem fine
>jason: ADEHY N10 HAYED +53 157
>jackson: BEGQSUV 12K BEV. +24 138
#note looks like I overestimated GQSU here - I liked saving SUQ in store, which rarely gets blocked, and the G plays at D7 for -ING words, which could bail out my rack and let me score 30-40 while saving an S. BEVY also blocks a decent scoring spot, the double double and the M11 parallel spot. SQUIB is the top simming play, and then lovebug!
>jason: TUX 5K TUX +34 191
>jackson: GOQRSSU L1 QUOR.. +48 186
#note play the S? I almost always keep the S cause I think it's undervalued by Q and giving away information is not nice.
>jason: AJM 6D JAM +40 231
>jackson: CGISSTV 3K V.G +14 200
#note this turn is tough - I wanted to keep my second S in case I draw an A for QATS, but I was definitely overvaluing that aspect - I only draw an A 16% of the time, and then a big portion of those draws give me bingoes anyway, so keeping the S just for QATS rarely does anything for me.
I figured I would bingo more after the GSV tile plays rather than VOG, but it is very similar, just 0.5% more after GUVS than VOG. Blocking the Q is good for me because he has plays there more often than I will, and it really helps him outrun me. Lowering his average by 3-4 with GUVS is really good!
>jason: DELOOTT 13F TOOTLED +67 298
>jackson: CINSSST H12 C.NS +27 227
#note COSS may have a better immediate-bingo leave, but setting up the I hook is good so that he can't just block at 14B and kill a ton of stuff. COTS is fine as well for that reason, but the leave is slightly inferior (and this is the last T)
looks like the difference in leave is really big, keeping the T raises my bingo % from about 27 to 40, so I'm probably still better off with COSS despite his easier defensive response...
>jason: ?BEIMSZ 11D ZoMBIES +95 393
>jackson: AAINSST B8 .NTASIAS +70 297
>jason: AINOP A11 PIANO +41 434
>jackson: CDEGIOW 5A GOWD +21 318
#note the only possible bingo I can hit through the Q is CHARQUID - exchanging EGOW might be optimal, I hit CHARQUID about 2/1000 times!
I missed WODGE though which is definitely the right spread play, and spread is important in this tournament. I didn't see anything I could hit obviously, but felt that CEI gave me the best shot for possibly getting a Q bingo.
>jason: PRRU 10I PURR +16 450
>jackson: CEEINOR 9B .ONCE +25 343
>jason: GHIKLLW 15D KILL. +14 464
>jackson: AEHIR 12D AREI. +47 390
#note jason passed the WUG test!
>jason: GUW B4 W.G +11 475
>jackson: H L12 ..H +7 397
#note pretty sloppy on my part - I think I knew VOG was a mistake as I was playing it and should have realized that GUVS is the better strategic play. I'm still finding it hard to think of SQUIB as 6 points better than BEVY, but maybe I'm seeing the specific possibilities of SUQ and -ING plays but ignoring the general clunkiness of GQSU. COSS is a miscalculation, and exchanging was a marginal error.
>jackson: (U) +2 399
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