| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jesse_Day Jesse Day
#player2 Carl Carl
>Jesse_Day: EGKLRUZ 8D KLUGE +30 30
#note princess bride - "never get involved in a land war in asia". me - "never get involved in a shootout with carl johnson." I wanted to play ZERK or ZEK pretty bad to keep things tight but this is just too much better.
>Carl: AEHNNTT D4 THAN. +24 24
>Jesse_Day: ?AENPRZ I2 PANZERs +79 109
>Carl: AELNRST H8 .TERNALS +77 101
>Jesse_Day: AADFGIT 5I .AFTIG +38 147
>Carl: ?DIPUVY N2 PUD.Y +40 141
>Jesse_Day: ADELNOO H1 NOLO +24 171
#note a few points worse than either turning over more tiles with LOOED or just playing LOO and keeping a superior leave.
>Carl: ?AIMSSV K5 .AuVISMS +80 221
#note SAVAGISM or ATAVISMS on Row 13 squeak out the sim win. I considered ATAVISMS but not SAVAGISM. (-4)
>Jesse_Day: ADDEJOT O1 JATO +46 217
>Carl: AGHOSTU O6 OUGHT +32 253
#note SOUGH 12K wins the sim by a hair.
>Jesse_Day: DDEEIOX E1 DOXIE +38 255
#note Total brainfart. It's not even dictionary confusion. It's, "Carl didn't look at the word and bother to challenge." A moment's thought would have invalidated it. By the time I noticed, it was too late.
>Carl: ACIOSTV 1A AVOI. +30 283
#note Missing VOCALIST, which would have blocked his bingo. I want to believe that this wasn't my rack, but that's what I wrote down, and it's consistent with my next rack. (-23)
>Jesse_Day: ADDEELR 15F RE.ADDLE +61 316
#note I might actually beat carl for once!
>Carl: CENSTWY M13 WY. +18 301
>Jesse_Day: CEIIRRU L1 CURI.E +24 340
#note I don't think I'm up enough to sacrifice lots of points to block rows 10-12 yet.
>Carl: BCEINST 2D N.B +13 314
#note I was right to find the F2 hotspot worrisome, but BOP G2 accomplishes the same thing and keeps a better leave. (-5)
>Jesse_Day: BIIMORQ J9 QI +28 368
#note I was really thinking about making a play like LIMBI to try to shut down carl's options, but again, I'm really not up that much and there will not be a better Q spot available down the road. so I let him take another shot on an open board.
>Carl: ACEEIST B1 .IE +12 326
#note Quackle Championship Player won't consider anything but VESICATE; a many-ply sim puts VIE ahead by 4.6%. The obvious problem with VESICATE is that Jesse has two easy ways to win: He will usually play out first, and will almost always have a big play at 8A. Either of those spell serious trouble, and in fact, he'll probably do both. Pretty much any reasonable combination in the bag works against me. The only scenario I could think of has BFMW in the bag, and, like, six vowels on his rack. And if his rack was that bad last turn, he might have exchanged rather than play QI drawing to that garbage. With this inference, VESICATE looks even worse than the sim. I acknowledge that I won't often draw a playable bingo after VIE (one time in four along row A by my count), but I'd rather take a 25% chance than bingo my way to almost-certain doom.
>Jesse_Day: BFIIMOR E8 .IMBI +18 386
#note urgh. the pool actually doesn't work that great at the spot carl just created, so I'm not sure I have a better shot other than blocking all the rest of the lanes. I completely missed BIFORM for 46 at A3, but I may still lose if carl bingoes out - in fact with his actual rack of ACEORST it would've been a tie! quackle's suggestion of IF at G12 is interesting but I don't like giving carl another chance to fish by leaving 3 in the bag, although there aren't really any more lanes he can create.
>Carl: ACEORST A3 RECOATS +82 408
#note Interestingly, Elise puts VESICATE's win percentage at 41.4%, and VIE at 21.9%, which has to be way off. I manually simmed VESICATE to the end 20 times and it only won twice-- once, Jesse's rack was that bad, and the other time, I drew FIMBRIAE. Unorthodox plays like VIE don't come easily to me. I almost always miss them. So when I get to find one, with several experts watching and everything on the line, and it pays off, it feels really good. Without VIE, I would not have won the Vancouver tournament. And that makes it #1 on Carl Johnson's 2013 Awesome Play countdown! Happy New Year, everyone, and thanks for playing!
>Jesse_Day: EEEFORW N12 WEER +40 426
>Jesse_Day: EEEFORW -- -40 386
#note PS. My math for the 25% figure is as follows: 2 shots at IN for ACETINS, 6 shots at ACETOSE, 4 shots at ATRESIC, 2 shots at NECTARS, 4 for RECOATS, 2 for OCTANES, and one chance at WEBCAST is 21 combinations out of 84 total. A better mathematician may correct me on this. I don't doubt that forgoing the bingo is correct, but there may yet be a better fish.
>Carl: N 5D ..N +6 414
>Carl: (EEEFORW) +26 440 |
